U.S. Trade Snapshot – June 2025

In June 2025, the U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $85.7 billion—down $6.3 billion (-6.8%) from a year earlier—as exports rose by $5.5 billion to $180 billion. The drop marks a sharp reversal from March’s record $163.5 billion deficit, when firms rushed to import ahead of new tariffs. While overall imports held steady at $266 billion, their composition shifted as companies adjusted to new trade rules.

Imports from China fell to $18.9 billion, the lowest since the early COVID-19 lockdowns of February 2020. Vietnam and Taiwan, by contrast, reached $17.7 billion and $16.9 billion, nearly matching China for the first time. These shifts narrowed the trade gap with China, Canada, and Germany, even as deficits with Vietnam ($16.5B), Taiwan ($12.6B), and Mexico ($16.8B) hit record highs.

Export growth was driven by a narrow set of products. Of the 1,219 goods exported in June, 725 declined in value year-over-year, and only 494 increased. The top 10 products alone accounted for 66.1% of total export gains—highlighting how concentrated the growth was.

Pharmaceuticals led the surge. Exports of medicaments in dosage form reached nearly $3.8 billion, up $1 billion from a year earlier, led by shipments to Spain and Germany. One pharmaceutical plant in Indiana sent $1.9 billion in hormone-based ingredients to Florence, Italy—nearly triple the June 2024 figure. Steady sales of refined fuels, computing components, and aircraft parts lifted exports to the Netherlands. Meanwhile, explosive ammunition shipments from New York to Israel jumped 223%. But outbound flows to China, Canada, and Mexico fell, especially in vehicles, LNG, and refined oil.

State-level gains followed similar patterns. Texas recorded a $1.6 billion increase in drilling machinery exports to Canada, offsetting a $2.1 billion drop in crude oil. Arizona continued moving up the semiconductor value chain, with exports of data-processing parts, integrated circuits, and memory devices rising 26%. Georgia saw a 49.7% jump in civilian aircraft component exports, while Washington’s shipments of aircraft parts to China surged 81.1%—just before the U.S. relaxed licensing rules on jet engine technology used in COMAC aircraft. Across states, a small number of high-value shipments drove growth, while most product categories saw little or no increase.

Imports showed the reverse pattern of March’s buying rush, as companies worked through earlier stockpiles. Vaccines swung from +51% YoY in March to -17% in June; immunological goods from +103% to -18%; cars from +23% to -18%; and integrated circuits from +37% to -2%. Smartphone shipments slowed from +85% to +16%. CPUs were the exception: up 95% in March and another 143% in June, they now account for 5.2% of all U.S. goods imports—fueled by persistent demand for AI data centers and cloud infrastructure.

Overall, June’s narrower deficit reflects short-term volatility in a trade system still adjusting. A handful of large exports lifted the total, masking flat or declining shipments in core sectors. As the effects of March’s import surge fade and new tariffs take hold, further shifts in trade flows are likely.